Oh, Guelph real estate… what will you bring us in 2020? Sadly, I don’t have an actual crystal ball to predict the future of the Guelph market. However, all signs seem to be pointing towards a return to the kind of wild seller’s market that we last experienced in Guelph in 2017.
You remember 2017 here, right? Good grief… it was like the wild, wild west. A surge in GTA-buyer in-migration led to fierce competition and pricing rising exponentially. It was crazy. It was a horrible time to buy. And it was not sustainable.
Fast forward to 2018 and 2019, years where we saw the market largely balance out and in fact veer into a strong Buyer’s Market in certain price points. The upper range in Guelph, so let’s call it $800,000 and over, was soft in 2018 and even worse in 2019. Even homes priced well in that upper range sat and continued to sit.
In discussions with Guelph home sellers over the last couple of years, I’ve had a number of conversations where I’ve suggested in might be a good time to sit and wait for the market to rebound. Not only rebound, actually. I’ve said even since the madness of 2017 wrapped up that I was all but certain we’d see another wild Seller’s Market like that return.
I think 2020 may be the year for it. Less than one month in, here’s what I’m seeing.
Guelph Real Estate is Appealing to GTA Buyers (Again)
GTA Buyers are back; and so are their agents. Overpaid then… probably will overpay now. This drives up home prices quickly and artificially and it’s not sustainable, as we’ve seen. The prices have risen in those markets for the value proposition makes sense again. Guelph, while not cheap, is a place where the dollar goes exponentially further than it does in the GTA.
Lots of positive press and talk about quality of living in Guelph has also helped. This is an attractive city and increased commuter train and bus activity is also giving those who live in Toronto some reasonable and car-less options to get to and from work.
Inventory is Very Light
Very minimal inventory. A fraction of the homes for sale that buyers are looking for. The basic law of supply and demand means we almost organically shift into a Seller’s Market. So, combined with the other facotrs, the lack of inventory can take a Seller’s Market and set it on fire.
Competition is Becoming Normal Again
It may not be the news Buyers want to hear, but Competitions already starting and the spring market isn’t even on the radar
What does it all mean? Well, if I’m right, it’s going to be another wild ride. Good news for Sellers. Buyers will face a lot of challenges. Either way, getting good representation will be important. Wild markets really separate the experienced agents from those who are still figuring out how to navigate this kind of shift. It’s also a time when, be it on the selling or buying side, ethics and proper handling of offers becomes even more critcally important than ever.
We shall see how it all unfolds. I think that upper-end market will continue to struggle in town, and I do not anticipate the $1M homes moving quickly as has been the case for a few years. The mid/upper range ($700,000 and over,) will move, but pricing correctly will be key, and Buyers will want it all. Under $700,000 and things will move at a good pace. And anything under $550,000 is going to go positively bonkers.
If you were thinking of selling last year, I hope you got the advice to wait it out if possible. If you did, something tells me when you sell in 2020 you’ll be glad you did.
